The airlines have a lot of history data to tell them how a flight will do on any one date or day of the week. With first class monitzation on domestic routes and the high number of Platinum and Diamonds I would not expect more low award level seats to open up. You do not say where you are flying from, but for instance from Minneapolis to LA, that is often a difficult market to purchase a discounted first class fare at times. I can say that if someone were to be holding a low award reservation and they cancel, it will not likely go back in to inventory as low award availability. Again it depends upon timing to a certain extent. How wide open availability appears to the consumer has no bearing on how the airlines will view it.