I have yet to be shut out entirely on an award (and I'd consider paying for a 2x "rulebuster" award as being shut out). Knock on wood...

What I am finding is that the options are narrowing in some cases. Not having access to some of the best *A F products with US miles is one example. Having to route all Europe awards using Avios through Dublin on EI metal is another. The severe tightening of AA awards on mundane short-hauls has been a bit of a pain as well.

But there have been successes as well. Booked last-minute award J to HKG/NRT using US miles six weeks ago. Just booked 5 award seats together to Europe for peak summer 2013 dates, albeit in Aer Lingus economy class. Used US and DL companion passes to get some very expensive tickets booked to small Northeast airports this past summer. Did a few minor US to/from Canada awards at over 2 cpm.

I believe that at the end of the day, we will want to do enough travel that is atypical for the average credit card mileage churner that we'll continue to find our awards. We don't mind flying outside peak seasons and we are willing to fly any cabin although we tend to start our searches with J.

Only thing that has me a bit worried is that I have a *lot* of Avios and Aer Lingus is a rather thin lifeline to Europe...who knows how long it'll last. If that goes away, Avios will become solely my AA short-haul program and I'll be only looking at *A for Europe.