I will be arriving on a flight to Shanghai Hongqiao airport that is scheduled to arrive at 7pm (MU9454) on Thursday. I am hoping to get to a transfer onto a train to Beijing leaving from the central station at 9:18pm (D314). Unfortunately, I will have checked baggage. What do you think the chances of making this connection are (i.e. what is the probability of a late flight or bad traffic)?

Alternatively, I was thinking of taking G7146 at 9:15pm from Shanghai Hongqiao to Nanjing and transferring to the D314 from there (G7146 is scheduled to arrive at 11pm and D314 is scheduled to arrive there at 11:44pm) [a transfer at Suzhou is also possible I think]. Is this a viable alternative given it takes away the intracity transfer but adds the risk of a late train?

Thanks in advance for any advice.