I just started staying with Marriott over these last couple of months, and I will have around 150k points by the end of the year. Next year I should have much more, but my question is when is the optimal time to redeem your points?

Everytime I see a great deal going on it seems to change, such as the 5 nights and airline miles at a cat 5 hotel for 120k points. I see they have now increased it to 200k points. Also, I hear about airlines having bonus increases. I also see where I can buy 1000 dollars in Marriott cheques for 135k points.

So ultimately my question becomes what is the best time of year to redeem points? Is there some magical time window that we should invest our points into packages, or are these deals just random and you have to be on the look out for them?