I thought the status of the sponsoring member did have an impact but my experience also says otherwise. I tried to upgrade my friend -- I know, a great friend I am -- and the concierge at FRA mentioned that all the SEs would clear first. There were also 15+ SEs on the wait list, which I thought was crazy.

Off topic, my upgrades between FRA and YYZ this year have been terrible -- 8/15 so far this year