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Old Sep 29, 2012 | 11:50 am
  #5014  
wxguy
40 Countries Visited
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: BOS<>NYC<>BKK
Programs: UA 4.6MM LT-GS; AA1MM; Amtrak SE; MAR LT TITAN; PC Plat; HIL DIA; DL GLD, HYA GLOB
Posts: 4,887
Originally Posted by arisaa
URL="http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/maps/japan_turbulence_18.gif"]http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/maps/japan_turbulence_18.gif[/URL]

I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I cannot decipher this map to see how my PVG=>SFO flight will be on Monday. Would anybody like to hazard an educated guess?
I'm not a pilot -- but I am a meteorologist

Turbulence on a TPAC -- on a specific day and route -- is nearly impossible to predict a few days in advance, assuming there will be no significant storms in the departure or arrival terminal area. With the exception of a vigorous storm enroute (not likely this time of year), the two things that can cause significant turbulence are:
  • Passing through the edges into the core of the jet stream. But on an eastbound, remember that the jet stream is also your friend -- it gives you the the best tail wind to shorten your trip.
  • Flying right in the tops of the clouds. Often going up a few thousand feet can alleviate the bumps, but especially early in a flight when the plane is heavy with fuel, this is not possible. And flying at a lower altitude means fuel burn penalty -- costly and not in the best interest of making it to the destination without a fuel stop. It also takes significant coordination with Oceanic ATC to change altitudes outside of the flight plan.
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