Wow - this would be very disappointing if it proves true! Based on Jeff Zidell's response to a question on FFNs in a chat on Milepoint last year, we were lead to believe they would be back:
"We were expecting this question.
We love FFN as much as you do!
Just like we all need a vacation from time to time, FFN also needed a break. It’s a great promotion, and we are looking at what makes sense moving forward."
Hopefully he didn't mean a 5 year vacation!
Regarding Hyatt's changing portfolio mix, the other thing to remember is Hyatt did already have many select services properties back when FFNs were going on (Hawthorn Suites and then Amerisuites). But these select service hotels didn't participate in FFNs, only full service Hyatts did.
The one easy way to address the new portfolio mix other than having a FFN with a category cap is to have a FFN promotion where 2 stays at any select services Hyatt (Hyatt Place or Hyatt House) get one free stay at a select service Hyatt, and 2 stays at any full service Hyatt (Hyatt, Regency, Grand, Park, Andaz) get one free stay at a full service Hyatt.
I think FFNs can serve a valuable purpose for Hyatt both maintaining loyalty and filling unused capacity in slower periods of the year. While Hyatt's occupancy rates and financial results have been excellent, I hope they realize that a properly structured and timed FFN can a benefit to everyone.
One additional note on the portfolio mix:
One other thing to remember about Hyatt's portfolio mix - while 47% of Hyatt properties are now select service, only 23% of Hyatt's room totals are in select service hotels. So while on paper, Hyatt looks to be almost half select service hotels, the reality is less than 1/4 of rooms (and logically even less revenue) are from select service hotels. So maybe the way to keep FFNs as a viable promotion for Hyatt is to just exclude the select service hotels completely. Have some separate points promotion for select service and keep the occasional FFN promotion only for full service.