Originally Posted by
sbm12
You're playing a very asymmetrical game and claiming that the results are useful. I don't believe that's true.
You say that Z9 R0 is more likely to clear than Z3 R0 is more likely than Z0 R0. [...]
Maybe the Z0 flight has a few misconnects or people cancel while the Z9 flight suddenly has a group booking up front which swings inventory in a way RM wasn't expecting.
Originally Posted by
Beerman92
Are you saying that RM/IM is no better at predicting flight loads than random chance?
Actually, Seth is merely playing the sort of asymmetrical cherry-picking game he accuses others of playing. "Misconnects" is a red herring, not because it doesn't open up inventory, but rather because
it's evenly distributed across all relevant cases. (That is, it's just as likely to happen to a flight that's Z9 or Z3, in which case the elite's odds of getting an upgrade also improve.)