Upgrades were a lot more plentiful until they started holding back R inventory so they could sell TODs at checkin.
The capitalist in me can't hate them for that....but if that's how you're going to design your business model then don't tout upgrades as a key feature of your FF program.
I've done relatively well with upgrades as a 1K this year--to leisure destinations. Between EWR-ORD -IAH or anywhere in Cali it's been abysmal.
Not looking forward to falling from 1K status next year...but I'm starting to wonder what the point is anyway.