Originally Posted by
Cyba
THere may be more to this than meets the eye: [speculation/on] With BMI now gone, isn't EI one of the biggest slot holders at LHR? Financially they're also not doing great, LHR is likely one of EI's cash-cows so if BA goes on the attack, gives them additional headaches, maybe even diverts some of their transatlantic traffic, helps deepen their financial problems, sending them into FR's arms who not wanting to operate from LHR sell their slots on to the open market thereby helping BA increase their dominance at the airport even further and leaving them with a monopoly on the LHR-DUB market. This could work great for them and might be worth a long-ish wait [speculation/off]
Perhaps extreme but not completely implausible.
Yes, EI has a large number of Heathrow slot pairs,
but it wants more.
Its financials aren't as bad as you suggest - it is a profitable business that is undervalued by the Ryanair offer. It has not reported an annual loss since 2009 (Although it made a loss for the first 6 months of this year, EI's business is seasonal and the first half is always loss making, and
they are on course to match last year's profit). No-one has reacted with any enthusiasm to the Ryanair offer - the Government certainly won't sell to Ryanair, even if the competition authorities were to OK such a tie-up (which, the pundits and analysts are almost unanimously in agreement, will not be approved).
There is no way, even if Aer Lingus was in dire financial straits, that it would go running to Ryanair.
It's far more likely that a large part of Aer Lingus will end up in the hands of Etihad. James Hogan is quoted by Bloomberg this morning (not for the first time, either) as saying that he would be "
very happy to have that discussion" (talking to Ryanair about their almost 30% stake). Etihad currently owns just under 3% of Aer Lingus, and the two have just announced a new codesharing agreement. They are in talks about further cost savings and collaborations. Etihad has also stated it is interested in the Irish government's 25% stake, but of course as a non-EU entity is barred from holding 50% or more of an EU airline under current rules.