In the 1980s I would pay about $300 to fly round-trip in Y class for a medium to long hall domestic flight. Now, I just paid $1,100 round trip from IAH-ORD in first (see my other post about discounted P-fares). In inflation-adjusted terms, the two are equivalent, and I get a better seat as I did in the 1980 in the Y seat cabin. I also get about the same service quality as I would get in Y back then.

So, why are most people not paying directly for a seat in F and instead take a chance on upgrades? The other implication, of course, is that the more discounted F seats are made available, the lower the chance of an upgrade because people like me will grab the F seats at a discount...