At this point?
Short term? Yes, TAM will remain in Star, at least for a few more months, probably at least a year. With earn miles/redeem miles/recognize benefits reciprocity with every airline in Star Alliance, except AviancaTacaGroup airlines. I do think TAM will stay in Star for about 8-12 months more, just because they don't have to leave it yet. And because there's money to be made from the existing *A connections and codeshares, and it takes a lot of work and money to join an alliance, never mind to leave another one at the same time.
Long term? No. TAM is gone to oneworld. I was pretty clearly wrong. Or so it seems. Got page views though
The rulings are both from Chile and Brasil that eventually LAN and TAM have to be on only one alliance, not remain in two. Only the Chilean ruling also has the "must not be Avianca's alliance."
I don't have it in front of me, but I think it was specifically Avianca, not AviancaTaca. But whether it was just the Avianca side, or both, AviancaTaca's own merger is a done deal. At this point, contrary to my original speculation (shared BTW by some Copa people before either finished joining) AviancaTaca in Star is a done deal too. Not only are they in Star, they are aggressively promoting Star Alliance in nearly every marketing email and all over their websites, including a special website just to promote it.
So if that Chilean ruling stands as-is, LATAM cannot choose to be in Star, and both Chile & Brasil tell them they have to choose. Of course, as an estadosunidense where everbody goes to court about everything, I find it humorous that everyone believes that LATAM cannot and will never challenge that ruling nor look for a loophole around it. Being from the USA, I know companies are always trying to work around laws and court rulings and antitrust judgements. I'm guessing that LATAM has some very good abogados with the same mindset
Another telling piece of evidence is that TAM and AviancaTaca, though both in Star, have the unprecedented situation of no frequent flyer earning or award reciprocity, none at all. I think they recognize each other's *S and *G status for benefits, but zero earn/burn miles.
This may be an attempt to meet the spirit of the Chilean ruling, showing that even though they are in the same alliance as AviancaTaca for now, they are not acting like they are in the same alliance. But they didn't have to do this. The ruling gave them a year post-merger-closure to decide on the one alliance, letting LAN and TAM stay in their current alliances. I don't recall either the English nor Spanish versions of the ruling nor any analysis of them saying that they had to exclude AviancaTaca during the year that TAM would still be in Star.
And there's the possible loophole. Maybe LATAM management did this deliberately to create "facts on the ground" as to how they are meeting the spirit of the ruling while still being in Star. Maybe one year of voluntarily doing this Star-except-AviancaTaca is how their lawyers will make the case that they really are NOT in the "same alliance" because they have created a carve-out, so "Please let us keep TAM in Star and bring LAN into Star. We'll never cooperate in any way with AviancaTaca, we promise. Look at what we did voluntarily!"
Yeah, conspiracy theory, pure speculation.
Except explain to me why LATAM still has not come right out and said what they will do about alliances? If it's such an obvious decision, in fact one in which they have zero choice, why are they still dancing around with statements about evaluating alliance decisions? As of today, this is still on LAN's website (USA English site):
"We’re carefully evaluating this issue and we will decide make a decision within an established deadline, taking into account the alternative that offers the best benefits to our clients. For the moment, LAN continues with oneworld and TAM in Star Alliance. We will inform you of any coming up changes."
ref:
http://www.lan.com/en_us/sitio_perso...ome_faqlatam#;
US Airways has come right out and said that if they are allowed to buy American Airlines, they will drop out of Star and the combined new-American Airlines will remain in oneworld. That's an easy statement to make if that is your plan. For US, that's the obvious best/only approach in that merger. If the equivalent "must be in oneworld" is so obviously best/only for LATAM, how come they have never come out and said it?
I do contend there is still a significant non-zero possibility that the two operating airline groups of LATAM, LAN and TAM, will be in Star Alliance in a year or two. That "carve-out" of no AviancaTaca reciprocity may be exactly how they attempt to get around the Chilean ruling.
Companies renegotiate antitrust rulings all the time. Give up slots at DCA, get slots at LGA. Create a browser choice screen for the EU, don't have to remove Windows Media Player and IE from Windows 7. Give up AviancaTaca reciprocity, get to be in Star Alliance.
Unlikely. But 100% possible. And the only possible explanation for why LATAM has never come out and said "of course we have to be only in oneworld, it's obvious."
Somebody's buying me a pisco sour in SCL in a couple of years. Or I'm buying, depending on if I'm right. If I'm right, we'll meet in the LAN Mistral Star Alliance Lounge, jejeje. If I'm wrong, we'll meet in the TAM oneworld lounge in GRU.