Originally Posted by
sts603
Remember that there are only 72 Y upgrading into 20 J vs. 128 upgrading into 30 J.
Originally Posted by
dieuwer2
The odds have actually improved. Because 128 upgrading into 30 is about 43:10, while 72 upgrading into 20 is 36:10.
I disagree with both of you; the problem with your "odds" calculations is that they assume that all J seats are available for upgrade - that AA doesn't sell any of them. But that would be false.
Just for kicks, let's assume that AA currently sells, on average, 15 of the 30 J seats. That leaves 128 econ passengers hoping to score one of 15 upgrade J seats.
With these A321s, let's assume that AA will sell the same number of J seats, on average, or 15 of the 20 available. The future looks like five J seats for those 72 econ passengers - looks to me like the odds have worsened. And if AA can sell, on average, five more of the J seats (not out of the question if AA takes business away from UA and DL), then the upgrade chances just went to zero. Good for AA, not so good for us upgraders.