From AXP's Q2 conference call transcirpt:
So for years, we've been focused on the cost per point and endeavored to manage it, and we will continue to do that as we go forward. In this period, it was really not a result of changing the offerings within the program. It was really driven by customer behavior and a change in mix. So in this quarter we just had a shift in mix, really, away from the amount that was being redeemed for airlines compared to what we have had in prior quarters. And that's what really drove the weighted average cost per point down in this given period.
My reading of this is that it costs AXP more when a point is redeemed for miles. Whether this points to more transfer bonus or not is anyone's guess.