Originally Posted by
iahphx
I still think each ticket is "worth" about $5000 to UA in lost revenue (that might be a tad high, though -- without discounts, I think you can buy an EWR-HKG BF ticket for about $6800). So my ballpark bet was that this would be a $10 million mistake if honored.
And that, my friends, is the problem here. $10 million would actually be "material" to UAL's earnings (although less so if the cost were spread out over the next 12 months).
Nah ... you're forgetting two key points ...
1) The vast majority of these travelers wouldn't have ever spent that $6,800 ... if this deal didn't exist, they wouldn't have made the trip at all, and
2) UA flies far more capacity on most HKG routes than they need for passenger traffic (because of high cargo loads) ... the vast majority of the seats on UA metal flights would be empty, or full of non-revs.
Yes, there would be some revenue hit as these itineraries touch other carriers and other routes (in some cases), but I'm guessing that those will be the minority. In most cases, there would be very little true revenue impact.