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Old Jul 13, 2012 | 11:44 am
  #74  
spin88
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
Originally Posted by UA-NYC
Excellent analysis! Sounds like some potentially damaging information may come out on the earnings call. Hopefully the analysts will grill the over-entitled leadership on what's causing the PRASM gap vs. competitors.
That may come up, or it may not. I am sure that UALs management is watching the numbers carefully, what they chose to do about it is a different matter. I am not in the camp of those who think that UA will simply continue down the same road, but how they can make changes at this point is another matter.

When the April figures were bad UAL said that they had reduced bookings in anticipation of the SHARES change over (but still ended up with higher IDBs than other carriers.) Nothing has been said since relevant to PRASM. But I am sure that "merger" will be raised and I anticipate that they will probably note that as they integrate they are having to fine tune their revenue management (IM) system and figure out how to adjust pricing for a unified airline. There is a lot going on. Your theory (and mine) that they are loosing some high value traffic is likely part of the story, but probably not the entire story.

The real question is if the subject of status matches or elite defection or ability to fell F/C seats or attract "high revenue" traffic will come up.

I also note that I fully agree with Sfx24, there are no "disclosure" issues here, UAL has not held back anything or provided less information than in the past. The information is all out there, and any investor/analyist can run (probably far better than I did ) the numbers.
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