PVDtoDEL, as one fellow poster did remind you quite a few times in the AoI forum, you need to be both more levelheaded and more thoughtful when posting. Shooting trenchant replies regarding impending destruction without stating the reason, if there's one, smacks of an emotional reply and does add nothing worthwhile to a discussion. The induction of new members to an alliance, any alliance, is always a positive outcome no matter the circumstances and as such should be treated. Finally, I must say that the title of this thread is one of the more absurd I've seen in many years, OW is gonna survive as * and ST will, although clearly the years of rapid development are ended already for all three, and will likely never come back again, so each of the alliances will remain roughly the same size as now. I think what we may expect in future is substantial reshuffling of members, some will disappear due to circumstances (Malev, Spanair, Mexicana, and i'll add Czech, Austrian and SN Brussels in the medium period), some will switch (TAM very soon, but I'll add Thai, South African and perhaps the unlikely combo Air China/Cathay), and perhaps some may find appealing to disengage entirely from the big three and try forming new, more focussed alliances (alliances were born by instigation of the European powerhouses and with a definite Atlantic overtones, now Asia instead is becoming the centre of the aviation market, and I will not be surprised if, say, CA, CX, SQ, MH and AI will take the lead in forming a new alliance altogether)