pay to upgrade vs dont pay
we did a 5 nights points + 2 nights BOGO certificate
i didnt pay any upgrade amount but agreed to not take my Sapphire on the BOGO if they would agree to me getting an Emerald in advance. I also got what I reckoned to be the best emerald - 205.
it was easter and the hotel was full + 25% of the villas were closed for rennovation.
unless going at say easter or christmas i would just book on points for all 7 nights (it was 40k a night when i booked , now 50k). i really think the absolute worst you would get is emerald OWB.