Well I have just been contemplating the future as my iPhone 4 contract runs out in 2 months. I moved to the 4 from the 3 and have been happy and still am that I can get all I need from the iphone4. At the end of earlier contracts I have been keen to try an upgrade, but not this time!!
So my decision is to keep the phone and switch to a sim only deal. The O2 On and On deal looks pretty good at the moment, 12 months sim only for £26 I think.
If you are being miserly, keep the phone if you are happy with it and get a cheaper sim only deal to suit your usage.