Are we talking about a GoFirst upgrade or those new ToD's that are offered a week out? GoFirst's aren't supposed to be offered unless all the preferreds clear and there's nobody on the waiting list. On hub-hub flights unless it's at a very akward time, you usually need to be at least Platinum to have a shot at clearing (and it's a crapshoot even for Chairman's), though I haven't been on a transcon since the new program year started so maybe things are different with fewer elites...

The new ToD's on the other hand - threads said these upgrades were in fact being prioritized ahead of elite upgrades (just like on United), although the chatter on this subject has died down, so perhaps US backed off on that for now...