FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - ARCHIVE: US LCC & AMR / AA Takeover / merger Rumors and Discussion (consolidated)
Old Apr 17, 2012, 1:33 pm
  #97  
ksweeney
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: DCA and STL
Programs: AA Concierge Key, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, National Car Executive Elite
Posts: 524
Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
I would second this. No matter which side of the fence you stand on the unions at AA are going to be neutered either by the Court or under pressure to go along with management under threat of much harsher measurers put into place by the Court. Look at all of the huffing and puffing that went on by unions with the other carriers in Chapter 11, all of which mounted to less than a hill of beans.

Most creditors are looking at the situation as to will a much larger airline with a more robust route structure benefit me more than a smaller airline still hobbled by two larger competitors. Its not to say that they will not discuss and consider implications of labor unrest but having a bunch of happy pappy FAs is probably not very high on their list.

USAir needs AA more than AA needs USAir and Parker appears to be dying to do a merger (he has tried to dance with just about everyone else.) If he can make a compelling argument to creditors he has a very good shot at doing something. There will likely be no shortage of parties willing to line his pockets with funding.

The counteraction could be DL to make a run for AA, assuming DL has a somewhat credible strategy of getting around antitrust concerns without gutting itself.
With the anti-trust issues, DL would only succeed by buying parts and spinning the rest off to someone else. For example DL might want to do a joint deal with US. DL would pickup the ORD hub along with some 737s and US would take the rest. DL would move ahead of UA in the "mine is bigger than yours" game they are playing. US would still benefit massively with the MIA, DFW, and LAX hubs. Other than some scenario like this where DL buys components of AA, the anti-trust issues would stop DL dead in its tracks.
ksweeney is offline