PG-
I hope I've not come off as dogmatic here. Obviously in light of Sept 11, all bets were likely going to be off for this year anyway. Remember, this thread well pre-dated the airline industry problems.
That being said, I referenced your link. And sure enough, AA's 'early' decision to annouce 2003 extension is consistent with my theory that the FFPs that announce EARLY could have a competitive advantage attracting new members (and reassuring existing ones) and/OR motivating other FFPs to consider equally 'early' and close-to-matching decisionmaking.

I agree that AA could have waited until Dec to encourage more flying by its now complacent Exec Plat and Plat, BUT iit sure showed some serious RESPECT for their membership...irrespective of whether people agree or disagree with their offer.