<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" size="2">Originally posted by NoStressHere:
Surely not a web site worth of information. Though many would be glad to take a bump in exchange for $$/free flights, I really can not see that many spending time trying to find a flight that seems to have a chance of bumping. In fact, any flight that was a regular for bumping would in time fall off the list as the airlines track these and would reduce the overbooking factor on that flight.
So, he here is the proposed scenario. I need to go from ATL-BOS on 21 June. I WANT to get bumped. I check the site. One guy once got bumped on late flight. Even though I want to get there in the early evening, I book the late one. I get to airport. There are 30 empty seats. ****. Stupid web site.</font>
Suppose that we had data for two years that shows that on Thursdays (21-June is a Thursday this year), 90% of the time, the early evening flight is overbooked. You would like to go early evening, but for $300 you wouldn't mind waiting for the late evening flight. Now you have a 90% chance of getting $300 and a 10% chance of getting there on the early flight. Further, if you just don't feel like it tonight, you skip the $300 and go as reserved.
The last flight of the night is usually not overbooked. That is the airline's "clean up" flight for the night.