Originally Posted by
Platinum A332
What are the chances of CA joining oneworld? It does not seem that they are heavily in a partnership with any of the Star Alliance , and where they are they can be easily replaced. In fact their most extensive partnership is with CX and KA, both oneworld members.
- Replace NH with JL on Japan-China flights
- QF can replace MU with CA on Australian flights - Qantas can fly to Shanghai, and Air China for Beijing flights. QF and CA codeshared on the PEK-SYD route at one stage.
- Partner with AA on the US flights.
Whereas CX on the other hand, has a huge rival in * in SQ. Plus it codeshares heavily with AA even to South America, BA in inter-Europe, JL on flights to Japan amongst others.
I think we might see HU/HX join oneworld (providing a mini HKG base to star), and CA come to oneworld longer term. To me it seems logical, feel free to disagree.
Air China seems pretty happy in *, slowly growing into a bigger and bigger role in the alliance. The scenario you laid out does make sense should they defect, although the second point is kind of moot from air china's point of view (also I'm assuming you meant Hainan joins *A, not oneworld). Alot of this Air China/Cathay defecting talk depends heavily upon who is percieved to be calling the shots. I would put my money on the Chinese government as opposed to swire pacific. Also, I could see Cathay defecting to *A if oneworld was collapsing and Singapore airlines decided to leave. Cathay could codeshare with united/avianca/taca/copa for south america, ANA replaces JAL and lufthansa and friends provide a number of different bases in europe to work from.