What a thread this has been so far, I bet another 20 pages minimum.

I have a slightly different perspective based on my personal travel needs. I fly mostly TPACs with a few domestic flights. My main concern is being able to upgrade from M fares into J using SWUs/miles (since the miles I earn on a TPAC M fare as a PM nearly pay for the UG), and to a lesser extent, into domestic F on domestic legs of TPACs. If I am on a domestic flight that didn't have G availability and I don't get UGed, no big deal, though PMs have good UG rates on the domestic routes I usually fly. A smaller concern is lounge access on int'l itineraries.

Obviously I have no idea what it will take to make PM under this new system. But if my flying patterns will no longer get me to PM and hence the SWUs, I will just start looking for the cheapest fares and/or try to go to another airline where it will be easier to UG, if any exists.

The ex-Asia multi-city itineraries I fly on M fares usually cost around $3000, and I fly about 5-6 per year. I doubt spending $15-$18K directly on DL plus having a DL Amex makes me a HVC, but if DL doesn't want $18K for only taking up about 30 total seats per year, I will take my business elsewhere.