Non-rev passengers are on the upgrade list behind all elites. There can be a good number of non-revs on any flight.
UAInsider has asked us to forward her with details of any TOD situation. Most of the time, she has found that the system is working, and that there are more available upgrades than elite paying passengers. If you search TOD and read the threads, you will find her efforts and responses.
I would not be happy to be offered a TOD upgrade if my UDU is a shoo-in because of the availability and my elite status.
My upgrade % has been quite good (when I am not suffering an ERJ145). It did go down some when the Y/B/M instant upgrades were first offered.
Some things are different now. As a hub captive, I have limited choice. I hope that many of the posters above leave, as that reduces the competition for the UDU's.