I always ask at the club (or I know from past experience on the flight) what the inbound is. Then I use a combination of FlightTrack (Android app), Flight Aware and Flightstats to track my inbound. If that flight (and therefore my aircraft) is at the gate, I go at the scheduled time no matter what the TV says. If the inbound hasn't arrived yet, I stay in the club until it does. Yeah, there's a risk that they'll sub an aircraft, but it's a risk I'm okay with because I figure YX and ZW don't have the aircraft, and US 1928 (my go to flight) hasn't subbed in the 15 months I've been a semi-regular.