IMHO you will almost certainly get the Amex card as the offer only requires you be a first time holder of the particular card you are applying for. However, Citi may apply (probably will apply) its "secret" rule that you must wait 60-90 days between apps to get approved. Best bet is to wait at least 95 days from date previous card was issued.

There are many lengthy threads about the AA Citi cards. Many, including myself, have gotten all three of the AA cards, some several times over the course of years.

I know I didn't get those 1.5 mil miles through my AA account by flying BIS.