Let's assume, for purposes of argument, that there are 40k EXPs (complete WAG guess). I'd estimate that maybe one percent or two percent are the crazed Flyertalker-get-EXP-on-a-dime type and the rest are "normal." Would AA really cancel a successful long-haul flight because of that 400 or 800 (or even 1200) outliers? I'm skeptical.

Before the 2008 fuel price spike, the slow season to SIN typically meant sub-$1,000 all-in return fares, and with creative routings, could yield 25k EQMs each from LAX. The 2009 jetBlue beatdown from BOS to SFO/LAX/SAN combined with DBEQM enabled some to achieve EXP for less than $2,000 with just 10 overnights to BOS. There are many other examples, including STL/BNA/RDU double EQM offer, the recent double EQM promo for DFW-LAX/SFO plus the current systemwide double EQM promo.

AA knows that EXPs tend to remain loyal, so it makes sense to "buy" their loyalty with a double EQM promo. Citi handed out 75k miles for new cardholders last year (I ended up with 225k bonus miles from that one) and at one cent per mile, Citi spent $750 per card to gain each new cardholder. I can envision someone at AA thinking that it makes sense to hand out a few SWUs in the hopes it pays off for years to come.