I think I'm going to see what my luck is tomorrow on DL. Since I'm going to be lowest tier on either DL or AS for most of the year (until I hit 50K sometime in the fall) I'm guessing my best shot at upgrades is to fly DL under my DL silver medallion status. As silver medallion I believe I would have priority on DL flights over AS elites and judging by current pricing it looks like I'll be flying DL more. I suspect my upgrade chances would be slim to none on AS flights with non-gold MVP status, greater competition for AS upgrades flying out of an AS hub, and fewer first class seats available due to smaller cabins.

So AS will probably not earn my loyalty this year due to:
1) No real advantage of Alaska UG certs since requires higher fare classes now like DL SWUs and fewer options to use AS certs unless flying to AS destinations
2) Much higher bar to reach Gold 75k if flying on partners
3) Current less than competitive pricing vs. DL to primary destination
4) Limited options to earn EQMs from non-travel (can earn EQMs on DL via credit card spend and other promotions)
5) No rollover

Reasons I'm still considering AS:
1) Would earn EQMs on non-DL parnters (but of limited benefit if going for Gold 75K unless I fly an additional 15K on non-DL partners since bar is raised to 90K)
2) Would earn 25% more AS miles (150% vs 125%) until gold reached (est. $150 value)
3) Would get 50K bonus upon reaching 75K vs 20K bonus for DL (est. $350 value)
4) AS miles are more valuable to me (a few more partners, can redeem for one way travel on AS metal, can re-deposit within 3 days of travel unlike DL)