I do see the mega-bonuses declining, as noted above. But there are still 40k and 50k offers out there that seem to be the 'going rate'. Back in the early 2000s, when I signed up for my UMP Visa, 25k was the best I could find for a sign up bonus. So, although the mega bonuses might be thin right now, I do think the 'market rate' has gone from 25k to about 40k. (Of course, as noted, this coincides with devaluation and/or reduced award availability, so the purchasing power of the 40k is probably no more than the purchasing power of 25k in 2003.)