OK - after weighing all of the options, I think I will stop short of Gold at 49.5K MQM for the year. Roll 24.5K over into next year. I will apply for the AMEX Reserve Card in January and the 10K MQM will put me at 35K sometime mid January. I should make the 15K needed to hit the Gold threshold sometime in late Spring or early Summer (call it May). If that is the case, I will have Gold status guaranteed through 2/2013 - correct?

My logic is that with similar flight patterns planned for 2012, if I were to upgrade to Gold in 12/2011, I would struggle to renew with an additional 50K MQM. If I did miss it, I would only have Gold through 2/2013 (or for roughly 14 months). By rolling over and holding Silver through May 2012, I will get gold for 21 months).

Make sense or no? (sorry for the newbie questions, but this is new to me and I don't want to screw it up with faulty reasoning)