I find this time of year much harder to get upgrades than in January. Right now you have a number of people going on mileage runs to get/maintain status plus the new elites from this year so I am not surprised that you are seeing a record number on a flight. In January the number of elites drops from those who didn't requalify. Personally, I try to avoid traveling this time of year (and get my mileage runs in early in the year ).