Sometimes, I think it is the luck of the draw. I think that airlines try to take status into account, but sometimes, just being in the right place at the right time happens.

Once, my partner and I were flying TATL on UA, connecting from another city through IAD. Our original flight to IAD went mechanical, we had to be sent to IAD on another flight, getting us to the gate moments before our TATL flight took off. Both of us ended up in C. I'm *G, he's nothing. We were on separate PNRs. Clearly it wasn't my status that got us both in business.

If, when checking in, I get bumped to business, I know Y is oversold and my status lead to an upgrade.