I always figure you should know your travel goals before you pursue (rather than register for) any hotel/airline program. I register for every airline or hotel I ever use because I never know when that program will become useful and there's no reason to have wasted the flights/stays I've already made. Pursuing a program, however, means shifting spending patterns (not necessarily mileage/mattress runs). If a flight is $25 more expensive with one airline or my hotel night is $10 more expensive, but I would have flown/stayed anyway, then there is a value to the extra spending done now.

Essentially, that's my problem with mileage/mattress running. Running seems to imply that you've just spent several hundred (or thousands) of dollars that you wouldn't have otherwise spent. Shifting spending is different; I would have spent anyway, but I'm willing to pay the extra (insert acceptable amount here) to achieve a goal I might not otherwise.

My example: I had a number of spring/summer stays in 2011 I knew I needed to do. I shifted those to SPG because they were an option where I was traveling, and I had a specific purpose in mind--taking advantage of their Free Resort Night promotion to get a free night at the Turnberry Resort in Scotland, where I'd planned a trip in August, for every three nights I was already going to stay. So, maybe I spent an extra $200 over nine stays. At $450 per night at Turnberry, I was saving over a thousand dollars.

I understand your original use of the term "orphan." I'd suggest that knowing your short and long-term travel goals makes it a lot easier to understand that all programs may prove to be worthwhile orphans.