Any specific reason why you cant fly back to downtown instead of Pearson?
I really dont think anything in coach will open up - I dunno - others may have a different experience.
Remember, if you book the 2 stop route - you can change it later for free if you see something better, but if you dont, you are at the mercy of something opening up - which frankly, I dont see happening on Dec 23rd.
If you book one-way with miles, and pay for the return - it wont affect the price - both miles and a paid ticket are half price for one-way of a return.