Actually, 40 days sounds just about right given the magnitude of CX's crisis.

As per the CX website, in April 2003, Cathay Pacific carried 340,691 passengers, down 65.7 percent from the same month last year.

These figures have continued to soften and at present the airline is projected to transport approximately 208,000 passengers in May 2003, down 80.7 percent from the same month last year. Revenue passenger kilometres plummetted 58.2 percent. Passenger load factor fell by over half to 39.3 percent.

With those kinds of numbers, a good guesstimate might place CX's daily CASH losses in the neighborhood of ~$20 million PER DAY. Keeping in mind that CX would likely have to cease operating before the cash-on-hand equals $0, 40 days until touchdown is on target.

Dragonair's situation is even worse: KA's May 2003 LF to date is a paltry 7.3%. That's right - KA is not even filling TEN PERCENT of its seats at this point.

Barring an immediate and drastic shift in fortunes, CX and KA will be probably be dead by midyear.


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