FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Discussion about the cost of miles and how you value points
Old Sep 21, 2011, 1:10 pm
  #12  
mikeef
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Finally back in Boston after escaping from New York
Posts: 13,644
Originally Posted by pinniped
I do exactly what mikeef does...glad I'm not the only one.


My "problem" is that I value the hotel points very highly by comparison to many other FT'ers. I value airline miles roughly on par with what other FT'ers do - about 1.5 cpm when considering a coach award vs. a trip I'd otherwise book with cash.

I hold my Marriott points until I'm well up in the 1.4-1.5 cpp range. I usually hold Starwood until I'm over a nickel. Priority Club...redeeming 50k next weekend at about 0.9cpp. I always value points against what the local hotel market is really doing, including any reasonable non-points-earning avenues (boutiques, Priceline, etc.).

So these hotel transfers are really painful to me. Sure, I don't mind burning 850 SPG for a hit. But cutting loose 10,000 Marriott is tough. That's a $150+ hotel room I'm giving up for that hit and 2,000 US Airways miles.

I might do the LQ, Carlson, Choice, etc. - whichever ones of those will let me buy points in the $50-60 range. Since I have no plans to actually stay in those hotels (I figure PC has me covered if I need a rural motel), then I'll just allow the cost of the points to equal their value, regardless of how an expert in those programs would really use them at the hotels.

In 3-4 weeks, I'll have a better idea if I need to execute ONE painful hotel transfer during the Grand Slam period. But until then, I'm holding off on my core programs beyond Starwood.
It all got too complicated for me and I committed to using Lucky's numbers to do it. I have to balance off the fact that I tend to use my hotel points at very high redemption levels with the fact that there are some points that I may never use. For instance, I could acquire a bunch of Choice points and come up with an extreme value for them by staying at the best hotel, but I would likely never do that. I've resigned myself to the fact that my method isn't perfect, but for my purposes, it's consistent. Sigh.

Mike
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