Hi there, I'm considering transferring points to DL from Amex and wanted to know what you all thought.

Right now there is a nice promotion that offers 40% rebate on points (a 67% bonus). It ends at the end of the month and it has certainly piqued my interest.

Essentially, in the next few years a trip would be in store for either Hawaii, London, or elsewhere.

I'm starting to think that even if I don't get the low award to Hawaii, it's a great deal. 80,500 Amex points per ticket for Biz/First to Hawaii isn't bad. 60,000 Amex points per ticket for business/first to LHR isn't bad (although I did see the tax amounts on that one...).

Here are my quesitons:

(1) Since I'm looking a few years out, how worried should I be over devaluation in points? BA just had a 50% bonus from Amex points and their points were devalued significantly by changing their partner award rules.

(2) How easy is it to get the low rewards? I used the stickied post and I haven't found much luck to Hawaii from my location. I've been able to find medium awards to Hawaii and Low awards to LHR.

And the (less, IMO) important question is, how many points do I transfer? I simply don't know which location we'll travel to but I still want to take advantage of the 67% bonus. It seems like if I'm conservative and transfer enough for the LHR trip, it wouldn't be that much to add if we wanted to do HI instead. In that case it would be:

60k Amex each if we wanted to do LHR, per ticket or
60k Amex now + 35k Amex later if we wanted to do Hawaii, per ticket (95k total).

At any rate, two huge influences are still those questions posed above -- devaluation chances and chances at a low reward to HI. Any thoughts?