It's not the best time to be an out-of-work pilot looking for a job, according to airline industry experts. As 52 aviators fired from Cathay Pacific in the midst of an industrial dispute contemplate their future, analysts warn the global economic slowdown and union troubles at major airlines will make it difficult for them to find new jobs elsewhere.
With the airline's flights returning to a more normal schedule after being plagued by delays and cancellations over the past week, the pilots' union looks in danger of being outpaced and outmanoeuvred by Cathay Pacific management.

A recent Aircrew Officers' Association (AOA) press conference highlighted how the union seems to have failed to take account of how greatly the tide has turned in the airline's favour. Committee members had nothing substantially new to say at the Thursday night briefing, simply repeating previous demands for the sacked pilots to be reinstated.

Journalists seemed to enjoy the Sheraton Hotel's complimentary dim sum, coffee and cakes. But the only morsel general secretary John Findlay had to offer was that 20 more pilots had joined the union's ranks in the wake of the sackings.

Mr Findlay rehashed a rumour that as many as 150 pilots could be fired - only to admit that "there probably is no truth in that".

Sat alongside an equally grim-looking AOA president Nigel Demery, Mr Findlay told how laid-off pilots were feeling under stress and anxious. "They are devastated. Their families are devastated. They are suffering."

Observers are puzzled by the union's refusal to allow reporters to interview the sacked pilots, including one who is said to have five children, a move likely to gain some public sympathy and help stem the flow of resentment caused by the inconvenience their industrial action has inflicted.

While the union fretted over the fate of its sacked members and held on to its apparently unrealistic demand for them to be rehired, Cathay Pacific was consolidating and moving forward. The majority of its flights are now operating again and this weekend it plans to begin reducing the use of jets and crews chartered from the mainland.

Even Mr Demery, a captain at the airline, who had requested permission not to be rostered on flights for a few days while he handled the dispute, expected to be back on the flight deck of a Boeing 777 today, possibly flying to Penang.

Cathay Pacific is standing firm and said it had no intention of rehiring fired pilots. "How does the union think they can get the jobs back?" asked director of corporate development Tony Tyler. "We can, legally, terminate contracts without having to give any explanation. [Pilots] may be thinking that eventually, in negotiations, we will give reinstatement. If so, they are wrong. We will only consider negotiating if AOA drops and renounces industrial action, and reinstatement is not something we would negotiate about."

Analysts said the out-of-work pilots would probably seek jobs at other Asian airlines or in the Middle East, where there had been some expansion. But terms would not be as good as Cathay Pacific's.

Australian airlines might also provide work opportunities, said Timothy Ross, an analyst at UBS Warburg. But the sacked pilots might find it difficult because of the global economic downturn, which had caused airlines to cut back on expansion plans.

Phil Wickham, an aviation analyst at ING Barings, said: "In the short term, there might not be many openings because the airlines realise times are going to be tougher."

Jim Eckes, of consultants Indoswiss Aviation, said: "The growing economic downturn is throwing more pilots on to the market than otherwise. Everywhere you look there is union trouble worldwide."

A strike at the Spanish national carrier Iberia flared on Thursday when 99 pilots resigned. They have been holding periodic one-day strikes over pensions and wage rises. United States regional airline Comair suffered a strike by 1,300 pilots in late March and last month. Pay rises ranging from 13 to 30 per cent were won, but the airline reduced its fleet from 119 to 82 aircraft.

Korean Air pilots walked out for three days last month and the sacked Cathay pilots now stand little chance of finding new jobs at the South Korean flag carrier as its management decided to stop hiring foreign pilots this year. Lufthansa pilots staged two one-day strikes and won a three-year pay rise in May.

But over the long term, employment prospects look brighter. Analysts said the global-aviation industry was likely to experience a shortage in pilots as air travel continued growing, and fewer aviators were trained by the military. This trend is known as the "peace dividend" from the post-Cold War era.

The international job market was "in a state of flux right now", said Dennis Dolan, vice-president of the International Federation of Airline Pilots' Associations. After "hiring as fast as they could" in recent times, major American airlines were expected to freeze recruitment by the end of the month.

The Hong Kong union's Mr Demery disagreed with assessments of a tight job market for pilots and said Cathay would find it hard to find replacements. "There is an international shortage of pilots so this is not a good time to expect market forces to come to your aid," he said.

But UBS Warburg's Mr Ross disagreed. "Cathay is well-respected and pays a lot to its pilots. It shouldn't have any trouble attracting pilots."