chris,
i made the decision of switching from CX Dm to AA EXPLT 2 years ago (i moved from HK to US then), and i am staying with AA afetr i moved back to HK.
i think your analysis is mostly right, just some comments
+1) upgrades policy on AA flights (it is alot more useful if you are based in AA and fly a lot of AA domestic, but i guess it doesnt affect you much). there was e-upgrades2mile conversion which made the mile factor 3.25 2 years ago, but now it was gone.
+4) the incredible CX F/J award ex-USA. but again, it helps less if you are not based in US
+5) VIPOW on AA, which you can use to upgrade on transatlantic. i.e. AA F is BETTER than BA J !
+6) there are many bonus for CX flight for AADV members (repeated reward bonus/etc). check out cx-usa.com for details
-0) access to AC/FL when flying US domestic -- again, it wont impact you i guess
-1) this is one of the major minus for ppl based in HKG. btw, how many non-OW flights do you take ex-HKG?
-3) not true. i think all emerald get F baggage on OW flights, even if you get J tags, it is only 30-60 seconds after F baggages
-4) this is the other (adn the biggest) minus. however, i think you would be dropped to Gold and will have another years of decent treatment on CX (48 hoursw vs 24 hr)
i think you have covered most of the issues (except "+5"). my strategy had been AAEPLT + BA Silver (i ended up getting more than enough for BA Gold), to address the transtalantic issues before i got those VIPOW and AC/FL access issue. --- also because it is so easy to maintain BA Silver/Gold. i put all all the transatlantic (J) into BA, and everything else into AA.
if you end up getting BA Gold as well, you will have the BA lounge in HK when flying any airline.
the other option to get lounge access in HKG is to get the Citibank Platinum Visa/Master Card. you can access UA's F lounge. (or buy the priority pass)
----
my recommendation would be to go with AA.
however, it is also worthwhile to think about the following before switching
a) do you fly AA domestic
b) can you manage to get a Canadian address
c) would you be able to get BA SIlver on top of AA EXPLT (i believe so, if you can get CX diamond. you just have to put the extra 20k miles on J into BA -- you might even be able to reach Gold)
--- lax-lhr in J is 180 pts, 2 RT will get you to Silver, 5 RT get you BA GOLD, 3 RT is almost enough to renew GOLD afterwards. it is a lot easier if you got a EU address
d) how much non-OW ex-HKG flights will you take in a year?
the US address works better for AA/BA programs, i think (not sure though).
for BA, there were so many 3x mile awards that i got 4x miles (the other 100% being the Gold bonnus) on most trips!
for AA, i think you dont get miles for BA M class if you have a HK address -- which is the only difference, i think.
[This message has been edited by pegasus8228 (edited 01-05-2003).]