Excellent point. Much of the run-up was due to large capital inflows into NZ to fund some corporate acquisitions. These are mostly over now (even QF appears to have fully hedged its acquisition cost for Air NZ) and the drying up of these inflows will cause a free-fall of the NZ dollar. I'd be surprised if it does not drop 25% by March 2003 ... something to keep in mind when buying tickets. But predicting currency moves is a dangerous game, nothing is certain and the fundamentals are not always the driving factor. Or new fundamentals can surface, particularly for such a small economy (the county of Los Angeles has a bigger budget than the government of NZ).