Originally Posted by
Klm is Dead - Long Live KLM
It would be interesting to see where the bulk of the volume of actual merchant commissions (that give AMEX the cash to cut marketing deals with Delta) is coming from out of the total population of Skymiles AMEX cards. My guess is that is not coming from what we would consider frequent flyers...
It is not unreasonable to assume that, given that this has become a volume-driven business, that the big dollars are coming from the huge aggregate number of elite wannabees rather than from the small number of elites who dominate the award redemption process and who are impacted by this policy change.
In fact, it is quite conceivable that AMEX and Delta formulated this policy together to improve award availability for other members than those with lots of "work the system" knowledge and more miles to be able to game. AMEX knows all too well that if it becomes too difficult for the bulk of the Skymiles members to be able to ever book an award at all, then people will stop hoping or believing in the program and defect en masse cutting their AMEX card in half.
Better to lose 497 FT elites rather than 497.000 almost FOs paying outrageous annual fees and putting everything including the kitchen sink on their AMEX card to get their "free" ticket every two-three years.
Delta elites need to relinquish their privilege of using the Skymiles program as their personal last-minute, no cost, no penalty, full flex travel agency so that AMEX can offer more awards to AMEX kettles.
AMEX may be the key to understanding what is causing this change.
I don't really see Amex as a Kettle product. That said, there are other uses of MR points in addition to travel on DL. Instead I believe the synergy between DL and Amex is very much about DL's FF community - business people who travel often, spend high on Amex (personal and business), redeem those MR points for DL miles which DL sells to Amex for big $$$. Then we use those miles for free travel, last minute or not. The volume here isn't generated by Kettles. It is generated by the FF few and we are very much part of this eco-engine.
Personally, I don't think the SM management team thought this one through all that well, similar to the loss of re-issue/re-deposit waivers for PMs this time two years ago. I think it was a decision made in at least a partial vacuum but I could be wrong.