QF and AA have always had a good relationship and virtually code-share on most US-Aust flights. But it also have a strong relationship with BA. I suppose from QF's point of view the AA relationship is more important as a lot more aussies fly to US than europe. Even if QF-BA alliance collapses and CX stays in the alliance, a lot of QF euro travel can be diverted to CX and MH (if they join).

While this is the reasonable scenario, the fact the BA owns 25% of QF can mean that the reasonable alternative will not go ahead.

Does anyone consider the possibility of NW and AA being in OW together ? They service pretty different regions in US, so i reckon they could live together in OW. Then OW would have 2 US airlines (AA,NW), 4 euro ones (KL,BA,IB,Finn), 2 asian ones (MH,CX) and QF in Aust/NZ. That would make it heaps better than *A. But maybe anti-trust would not allow NW and AA to be under the same alliance.