Originally Posted by
avm2806
Now that's an interesting twist.... a merged IT/9W in oneworld - but I doubt
9W would jump in to save another failing carrier after being burnt a bit with S2... I think *A is going to get hurt in India for this, Skyteam isn't a serious player in the Indian market.
There is one factor that 9W will consider, and a reason why oneworld wasn't their pref and that is hub opportunities in Europe. OW gives them LHR as a main hub which is already bursting at the seams and too expensive / not possible to expand from. HEL and MAD aren't great options geographically.
SKY gives 9W CDG, MXP and AMS - all serious hubs (not that CDG is better than LHR, but still plenty of growth options). Star is obviously first choice as BRU gets to grow more and future options include ZRH, VIE etc (FRA being same situation as LHR, but MUC also becomes an option).
I know from the inside *A is 9W first choice but if it comes to it they might settle for skyteam, or even keep out of an alliance till the heat dies down - they've got bilateral agreements with just about everyone (CX/KA/QF/AA and MH - member elect - from oneworld), (LH,LX,TK, NH, OS, BD, SN, SA, UA, US from star) (AF,KL,DL,AZ from Skyteam). Until IT joins OW and actually allows for earning of status miles on their flights, for the international traveller 9W allows the most on options as far as banking miles are concerned.
The question remains will airlines like AA pull their codesharing once IT joins OW from 9W. MAA-BRU gets a fare amount of premium traffic on the AA code with pax connecting to ORD etc.
If 9W can continue to leverage its relationships in spite of competing airlines joining alliances then the strategy of staying out may not be so bad.
If the likes of AA gets pressure from BA/IT and cuts ties - then may not be so great for them anymore.
re. a possible merger 9W/IT you may well consider that it could come as GoI directive, and thus with some incentives and facilitations (just like it was said previously by Yaatri). Given the size and the comparable situation of the two, it should be easier to achieve than the previous one between AI/IC and the one with Sahara (that was the first choice by OW as a member).
re. hubs choice: i doubt that 9W would find easier to move in one of the big hubs you mentioned for * and ST (i would not classify MXP as a hub though, more a destination for point-to-point connections), where they would be reduced to act as dabbawallahs for the alliance incumbents. On OW side you get Berlin (from next year), Madrid is quickly becoming the door to South America and its growing economy, and you left out LGW where they could have more other opportunities to grow. Also BRU does not seems too high in LH priorities, and in case of an hypothetical accession to * I highly doubt they will allow direct competition on one of their locked markets, US-to-India connections.
re. alleged choice of * by 9W: they used to have a hired gun straight from LH stables as CEO, and those types are always good to swerve direction towards Cologne big momma's wills, so I am not really surprised there. By all accounts he did an excellent work straightening out the grow of the airline, however it seems curious to me when he was recalled by his handlers to head BMI, 9W apparently did not try to retain his services and quickly replaced him with a more neutral people.
As said previously the situation is still confused, and is in the best interest of all concerned parties to let it cool down for a while. I still think 9W would have more advantages going OW rather than * or ST (in strict order of desirability). After the JAL affair OW has demonstrated a lot of savvy, and they have been able to bag some impressive coups (MH, IT, LAN-TAM), i hope at the end the title will become reality and they are able to get 9W to the alliance.