Originally Posted by
CXBA
Agree on all points made. However I recall that at certain point there was some kind of agreement between 9W an IT regarding route consolidation and harmonization, plus some kind of internal code sharing (the details I don't recall now, perhaps someone can dig all the relevant informations). Given IT current bad shape, a merger with 9W could actually be a real possibility, and if this the case OW may well become the natural home for the new merged entity, and ending as the real winner in the indian market. I personally think GoI is well aware of SkyTeam image and placement as catcher of medium-lower segments of the market that they have slim chances to bag 9W.
Anyway the situation at the moment is so murky that anything can happen. I'm actually glad to see LH finally being on the receiving end for once, having failed with their usual perfected recipe of cajoling, arrogant behavior, chicanery and GoG unabashed support, political and financial alike.Good also to see GoI, albeit in their own twisted way, imposing some kind of strategic policy on air transport, and trying to enforce it against external demands.
Now that's an interesting twist.... a merged IT/9W in oneworld - but I doubt
9W would jump in to save another failing carrier after being burnt a bit with S2... I think *A is going to get hurt in India for this, Skyteam isn't a serious player in the Indian market.
There is one factor that 9W will consider, and a reason why oneworld wasn't their pref and that is hub opportunities in Europe. OW gives them LHR as a main hub which is already bursting at the seams and too expensive / not possible to expand from. HEL and MAD aren't great options geographically.
SKY gives 9W CDG, MXP and AMS - all serious hubs (not that CDG is better than LHR, but still plenty of growth options). Star is obviously first choice as BRU gets to grow more and future options include ZRH, VIE etc (FRA being same situation as LHR, but MUC also becomes an option).
I know from the inside *A is 9W first choice but if it comes to it they might settle for skyteam, or even keep out of an alliance till the heat dies down - they've got bilateral agreements with just about everyone (CX/KA/QF/AA and MH - member elect - from oneworld), (LH,LX,TK, NH, OS, BD, SN, SA, UA, US from star) (AF,KL,DL,AZ from Skyteam). Until IT joins OW and actually allows for earning of status miles on their flights, for the international traveller 9W allows the most on options as far as banking miles are concerned.
The question remains will airlines like AA pull their codesharing once IT joins OW from 9W. MAA-BRU gets a fare amount of premium traffic on the AA code with pax connecting to ORD etc.
If 9W can continue to leverage its relationships in spite of competing airlines joining alliances then the strategy of staying out may not be so bad.
If the likes of AA gets pressure from BA/IT and cuts ties - then may not be so great for them anymore.