Data point - I have had cards with Chase for many years, closed all of them a year ago or so. Received Chase Marriott and Continental in the last 4 months (solid spending on the latter, a bit on the former). A few weeks ago applied for Chase Sapphire - denied due to too many requests for credit, presumably not because of any credit problems. Called the recon line, the rep said they want to see how I use the credit for at least 6 months. My guess is the spending won't make much difference.