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Aug 2, 2011 | 10:40 pm

#15

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Yaatri

At the moment you are correct. Before we go any further, lets agree not to use silly arguments such as use AI sucks Skyteam sucks, DL sucks. It leads to endless arguments and baseless accusations such as Yaatri wants AI to join Star Alliance, eventually leading to the thread being closed.
Lets leave it at AI is bad but LH is not perfect.
What remains to be seen is
Who blinks first between AI/GoI and Star Alliance
How badly AI/GoI want to be in Star Alliance

It was reported in What went wrong with Air India's entry into Star Alliance? that
.

The Ministry of Civil Aviation and AI officials had expectations entirely at odds with this.

AI still has the option of joining Skyteam. provided they are willing to accept, that for whatever reasons, they were not good enough in the eyes of member airlines of Star Alliance. The smart thing for AI would be to go for Skyteam. Frequent Flyers of member airlines of Star Alliance weren't going to give AI what it so desperately needs and wants.

If Skyteam picks 9W over AI and 9W gives up on Star Alliance, in case of retaliation by GoI and in view of the threat issued by GoI, "Only one airline (AI) in *A or none", AI, LH and Star Alliance are losers.
If GoI retliates by insisting on its threat "Only one airline (AI) in *A or none", and AI joins Skyteam, 9W, LH and Star Alliance would be losers.
If AI and 9W continue to wait hoping to be allowed into Star Alliance, AI, 9W and Star Alliance would be losers. AI, 9W and Star Alliance and Skyteam would be losers.
If AI joins Skyteam, 9W decides, reluctantly to join Skyteam, and GoI/AI allow that to happen to spite Star Alliance and LH, accompanied by retaliation against LH, LH and Star Alliance are losers yet again.
If AI quietly joins Skyteam and allows 9W to join Star Alliance, but retaliates against Star Alliance and LH, Star Alliance, LH and to some extent 9W would be losers.
If GoI gives in Star demand and lets 9W join in exchange for its own admission, Skyteam loses.

Star Alliance is the biggest loser in 5 scenarios above, LH in 4, 9W in 3, AI in 2 Skyteam is a loser in only two of the six scenarios.

IMHO here is the list of losers in order of biggest to least.
Star Alliance
Lufthansa
Jet Airways
Air India
Skyteam

Alliances are not as important an entity as airlines in my opinion, as a good alliance has bad airlines. In a losing situation Lufthansa is the biggest loser and DL the least, as LH stands to lose what it has, while DL just won't get what it doesn't have.

As to Mallya, he will have plenty of opportunities to open his big mouth and embarrass himself. BLR-SFO nonstop anyone? It doesn't even fly to NA yet.
Finally one little question. Is their a minor alliance?

Agree on all points made. However I recall that at certain point there was some kind of agreement between 9W an IT regarding route consolidation and harmonization, plus some kind of internal code sharing (the details I don't recall now, perhaps someone can dig all the relevant informations). Given IT current bad shape, a merger with 9W could actually be a real possibility, and if this the case OW may well become the natural home for the new merged entity, and ending as the real winner in the indian market. I personally think GoI is well aware of SkyTeam image and placement as catcher of medium-lower segments of the market that they have slim chances to bag 9W.
Anyway the situation at the moment is so murky that anything can happen. I'm actually glad to see LH finally being on the receiving end for once, having failed with their usual perfected recipe of cajoling, arrogant behavior, chicanery and GoG unabashed support, political and financial alike.Good also to see GoI, albeit in their own twisted way, imposing some kind of strategic policy on air transport, and trying to enforce it against external demands.

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