Correct, but contrary to the "tin foil crew" I don't trust anybody and don't just single out the TSA.

There are way too many places in an airport/train station/bus depot where checked bags are out of sight.

If it is valuable and I can't take in my carry-on (the one that goes under my seat) then I don't take it. If it is really valuable then it goes on my person.

If I can't take it but it needs to go somewhere then I use the USPS - they might lose it but there is a much lower likelihood of it get stolen over (wh)UPS or FedEx.

I've dealt with the legal folks at UPS and FedEx and the amount of pilferage is staggering - but then again they do move mountains of stuff every day.