Originally Posted by
kiwiandrew
Perhaps, but I think it has to be asked why , since AI's candidature was announced in Dec 2007, have Aegean Airlines, Brussels Airlines Egyptair, Continental Airlines, TAM and Turkish Airlines all managed to meet the agreed standards ( Egyptair even managed to go from candidate to full member in an amazing 9 months!) while Ethiopian Airlines, Avianca-Taca and Copa all seem certain to make the transition to full members within the next 12 months.
It does not seem credible to me that AI is being somehow 'picked on', indeed *A have had numerous opportunities to tell AI "sorry, but you are not trying hard enough" but instead they have shown extraordinary patience as AI have missed one deadline after another. To me the wonder is not that *A seem to have finally run out of patience, but rather, that it has taken them so long to reach the point of saying "you are either in or you aren't".
If you believe that *A members are concerned about losing a portion of the Indian market by letting in an Indian carrier why are they so keen to get hold of 9W?
You are right to point out how other airlines were able to meet the requirements to join the alliance. I am not saying AI is being picked on. None of the airlines you mentioned represent a market the size of Indian market and the growth potential it has. Clearly AI has failed. It's OK to
vote against AI on merits. The one airline that stands to gain from supporting AI's bid is LH. Other members if star airlines don't. I doubt UA cares much whether Ai joins the alliance or not. UA even gave up flying to India. It's LH that's hoping to dominate the Indian market. None of the other members gains much by supporting India's bid, if anything they face losing that market to LH and maybe to AI. So, it's not picking on AI that's the reason, but losing out to LH and AI.
It's true that *A had many opportunities to wash its hands off AI. But It hasn't. Because LH is pushing for AI's entry. US, probably has no position on AI. CO would oppose it, so would TG, SQ, SAS, AC, Austrian and SWISS. Turkish Airline has been doing brisk business to India since joining Star Alliance. So I wouldn't be surprised if Turkish would oppose AI's entry. Air China might be another opponent. SN would probably prefer 9W over AI. That makes 10 airlines. Of course, I might be completely wrong, and we may never find out who would end voting against AI.
This is not sheer speculation on my part. The reasoning is quite plausible.
We do not know hoe many, if any, * member would oppose 9W. Why wouldn't they oppose 9W It's elementary my dear kiwiandrew. 9W does not come with the clout that AI has in GoI. LH will not get favourable treatment from GoI if 9W were to join *. Any unfair advnatge that LH hopes to get from GoI vanishes in that case.